Forecast: 20260223-132826-pst-backtest-view

Backend: nixtla · Granularity: 1d · Horizon: 7

Series: trend

Main forecast

Actual Forecast (AutoARIMA)Forecast (AutoETS)

Backfill testing + accuracies

Backtest window 1 · 2026-01-29 00:00:00 → 2026-02-04 00:00:00

Actual Predicted (AutoARIMA)Predicted (AutoETS)

Model	SMAPE	Holdout Range
AutoARIMA	0	2026-01-29 00:00:00 → 2026-02-04 00:00:00
AutoETS	0	2026-01-29 00:00:00 → 2026-02-04 00:00:00

Backtest window 2 · 2026-02-05 00:00:00 → 2026-02-11 00:00:00

Actual Predicted (AutoARIMA)Predicted (AutoETS)

Model	SMAPE	Holdout Range
AutoARIMA	0	2026-02-05 00:00:00 → 2026-02-11 00:00:00
AutoETS	0	2026-02-05 00:00:00 → 2026-02-11 00:00:00

Backtest window 3 · 2026-02-12 00:00:00 → 2026-02-18 00:00:00

Actual Predicted (AutoARIMA)Predicted (AutoETS)

Model	SMAPE	Holdout Range
AutoARIMA	0	2026-02-12 00:00:00 → 2026-02-18 00:00:00
AutoETS	0	2026-02-12 00:00:00 → 2026-02-18 00:00:00

Series: seasonal

Main forecast

Actual Forecast (AutoARIMA)Forecast (AutoETS)

Backfill testing + accuracies

Backtest window 1 · 2026-01-29 00:00:00 → 2026-02-04 00:00:00

Actual Predicted (AutoARIMA)Predicted (AutoETS)

Model	SMAPE	Holdout Range
AutoARIMA	25.9549	2026-01-29 00:00:00 → 2026-02-04 00:00:00
AutoETS	26.66	2026-01-29 00:00:00 → 2026-02-04 00:00:00

Backtest window 2 · 2026-02-05 00:00:00 → 2026-02-11 00:00:00

Actual Predicted (AutoARIMA)Predicted (AutoETS)

Model	SMAPE	Holdout Range
AutoARIMA	25.9498	2026-02-05 00:00:00 → 2026-02-11 00:00:00
AutoETS	26.6641	2026-02-05 00:00:00 → 2026-02-11 00:00:00

Backtest window 3 · 2026-02-12 00:00:00 → 2026-02-18 00:00:00

Actual Predicted (AutoARIMA)Predicted (AutoETS)

Model	SMAPE	Holdout Range
AutoARIMA	25.9464	2026-02-12 00:00:00 → 2026-02-18 00:00:00
AutoETS	26.6641	2026-02-12 00:00:00 → 2026-02-18 00:00:00

Series: combined

Main forecast

Actual Forecast (AutoARIMA)Forecast (AutoETS)

Backfill testing + accuracies

Backtest window 1 · 2026-01-29 00:00:00 → 2026-02-04 00:00:00

Actual Predicted (AutoARIMA)Predicted (AutoETS)

Model	SMAPE	Holdout Range
AutoARIMA	4.3066	2026-01-29 00:00:00 → 2026-02-04 00:00:00
AutoETS	2.9206	2026-01-29 00:00:00 → 2026-02-04 00:00:00

Backtest window 2 · 2026-02-05 00:00:00 → 2026-02-11 00:00:00

Actual Predicted (AutoARIMA)Predicted (AutoETS)

Model	SMAPE	Holdout Range
AutoARIMA	2.2346	2026-02-05 00:00:00 → 2026-02-11 00:00:00
AutoETS	2.2596	2026-02-05 00:00:00 → 2026-02-11 00:00:00

Backtest window 3 · 2026-02-12 00:00:00 → 2026-02-18 00:00:00

Actual Predicted (AutoARIMA)Predicted (AutoETS)

Model	SMAPE	Holdout Range
AutoARIMA	2.6662	2026-02-12 00:00:00 → 2026-02-18 00:00:00
AutoETS	2.6903	2026-02-12 00:00:00 → 2026-02-18 00:00:00

Payload

{
  "start_datetime": "2026-01-01T00:00:00",
  "granularity": "1d",
  "horizon": 7,
  "model": "nixtla",
  "backtest_windows": 3,
  "series_names": [
    "trend",
    "seasonal",
    "combined"
  ],
  "series": [
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    ],
    [
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    ]
  ],
  "use_m5": false
}